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January 20.2026
3 Minutes Read

Why Are Medicare Advantage Plans Costing Billions More than Traditional Medicare?

Dollar bills swirling into a black hole symbolizing Medicare costs.

The Financial Gap Between Medicare Advantage and Traditional Medicare

Medicare Advantage (MA) plans are facing scrutiny for their escalating costs compared to traditional Medicare (TM) services. A recent report from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) revealed that MA plans will receive a staggering $76 billion more in 2026 than TM. This increased spending raises important questions about the underlying reasons and implications for beneficiaries.

Understanding Coding Intensity and Favorable Selection

The disparities in spending are largely attributed to two main factors: coding intensity and favorable selection. Coding intensity refers to the tendency of MA plans to classify their enrollees as higher-risk patients, enabling them to secure greater monthly payments. Andy Johnson, a principal policy analyst at the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC), highlighted this practice as a primary driver of inflated risk scores, noting that MA plans have a financial incentive to report more diagnoses than necessary. This issue was particularly evident in a recent $556 million settlement involving Kaiser Permanente, one of the major MA plan providers, which was accused of submitting false diagnosis codes to obtain higher payments from the government.

On the other hand, favorable selection occurs when healthier individuals are more likely to enroll in MA plans, leaving TM to cover those who are less healthy and more costly. This trend not only skews the financial landscape but also raises fairness concerns about the distribution of resources across Medicare beneficiaries.

The Push for Reform: V28 Payment Policy

In 2024, the CMS introduced a new payment formula known as version V28 aimed at curbing the effects of coding intensity. By prioritizing verified diagnoses over predictive algorithms, this policy seeks to better reflect the actual health status of beneficiaries in payments made to MA plans.

Alarm Over Upcoding: Insights from Experts

Experts are raising alarms over the financial implications of upcoding, especially as the upcoding practices may have inflated payments by over $50 billion in 2024 alone. It’s crucial to recognize that while some MA plans, like UnitedHealth Group, have been noted for aggressive upcoding, others such as Kaiser Permanente have exhibited lower coding rates. This disparity suggests a competitive landscape where not all plans play by the same rules, potentially undermining the integrity of the Medicare system.

Looking Ahead: Potential Solutions and Impact on Beneficiaries

Future reforms need to address these discrepancies in a way that enhances fairness and accountability. Proposed solutions involve linking payment adjustments to the specific degree of upcoding among MA organizations. This could ensure that healthier plans do not unfairly benefit from an inflated diagnosis-related payment structure while those that adhere to more accurate reporting receive equitable compensation.

As stakeholders navigate these complex issues, it is essential to weigh the long-term implications for Medicare beneficiaries’ access to care and the sustainability of the Medicare program itself.

The Bigger Picture: Medicare’s Financial Future

With overpayments potentially leading to higher Medicare Part B premiums and taxpayer costs, careful monitoring and reform of MA plans appear essential for fostering a balanced healthcare system. Addressing these financial discrepancies through informed policy adjustments can promote fair competition among plans, ultimately benefiting beneficiaries across the board.

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